Looking At Social Behavior
In recent years, Prechter has
incorporated social behavior into his market analysis.
"The Wave Principle describes a
form of collective human herding behavior," he says. "Behavior
governs social mood, which results in social action and creates
social history."
From a social standpoint, he
says, there is a lot of evidence that the current bull market cycle
is mature.
Examples of the optimistic and
ebullient social mood currently include "essentially worldwide
peace," he says. "Wars tend to follow bear markets as they are a
result of a negative, fearful and angry social mood."
He cited the Revolutionary War,
the Civil War and World War II as examples of wars that followed
major bear markets.
"The fact that you can look
around the world and see very little fighting and people getting
along quite well is a reflection of the fact that the social mood
trend has been up for a long time," he says.
During the past several hundred
years, Prechter says, "Technology crazes (have) come near the end of
major cycles. In the early 1830s, it was a flood of inventions such
as the camera and the telegraph. In the 1920s it was radio, air
travel and so on. In the 1990s it's the Internet."
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